Computer-assisted formulas predicting cancer mortality risk after exposure to acute low dose ionizing radiation in humans

A clear relationship between dose of radiation and mortality in humans is still not known because of lack of human data that would enable to determine human tolerance in total body irradiation. Human data for analysis have been primarily from radiation accidents, radiotherapy and the atomic bomb victims. A general formula that predicts mortality probability as a function of dose rate and duration of exposure to acute high dose ionizing radiation in humans was published by the author, applying the “probacent” model to the reported data on animal-model-predicted dose versus mortality. In this study, the “probacent” model is applied to the data on dose versus cancer mortality risk, published by the United Nations (UNSCEAR, 2010) and other investigators to construct general formulas expressing a relationship between dose and solid cancer or leukemia mortality probability after exposure to acute low dose ionizing radiation in humans. There is a remarkable agreement between formula-derived and published values of dose and solid cancer or leukemia mortality probability (p > 0.99). The general formula might be helpful in preventing radiation hazard and injury in acute low dose ionizing radiation, and for safety in radiotherapy.